Views from the Nosebleeds Special Edition: Super Bowl LI Prediction

Everyone will salivate over the seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era ad nauseam.  Heck, folks are also already crowning Brady the best quarterback of all time over Joe Montana--although I'll wait until he wins to have that conversation.  However, here's a fun fact few people will mention: the NFC South is the only division where all four teams have been to a Super Bowl in the past 20 years and two of those teams have reigned victorious.  While the Patriots have dominated their division over the past 15 years, the Falcons have clawed their way through one of the toughest divisions in football to break an 18-year hiatus, looking to win the first championship in their 50-year history.  So of course, you've come here because you're expecting a prediction, right?!?!  Patience, my friends...analysis first, prediction last...

The Falcons boast the league's second-best offense with perhaps the largest embarrassment of riches we've seen since the '99 and '01 Rams a.k.a. "The Greatest Show on Turf".  Julio Jones is arguably second to none with his blazing speed, toughness and sure-handedness at receiver, but Mohamed Sanu (Bengals) and Taylor Gabriel (Browns) will be difficult covers as well.  They have the most dangerous one-two combo in any NFL backfield with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who are additional passing game weapons.  Coming off of one of the best years of his eight-year career, Matt Ryan has orchestrated Kyle Shanahan's offense to near perfection as the Falcons have dominated their opponents.  However, I'll put any Patriots offense led by Tom Brady up against anybody else, let alone the league's fourth-best offense with LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis and James White in his backfield; Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett and maybe the threats of Michael Floyd and Danny Amendola as receivers; and Josh McDaniels working his magic as OC.  Unfortunately, Brady is without the most unstoppable offensive player in either passing game, Rob Gronkowski, and there's no overlooking how that affects their effectiveness.  Granted, they'll still move surgically down the field on a tough, opportunistic defense, but one which is still fairly susceptible.  Nevertheless, the Falcons appear to have the more threatening offense because all of their stars are aligned, although I'd still take Brady because...well...he's Brady.

With that said, an offense is only as potent as the defense who they're facing and, despite being statistically at different ends of the spectrum, the Patriots and Falcons have two scrappy defenses.  Both are solid in takeaways--New England had 23 to Atlanta's 22--but they are both going up two of the most careful QBs and offenses in the league--both teams only had eleven giveaways, making the Patriots No. 3 in turnover differential while the Falcons slotted at No. 4.  Dan Quinn's hard-nosed attitude he brought with him from Seattle has rubbed off on a squad led by Deion Jones and Vic Beasley and turned them into a unit who, despite only being ranked No. 25 overall, can put on the pressure when necessary and has played impressively against two top-half offenses in the playoffs.  Although these are not your uncle Rodney Harrison's Patriots on defense, the combination of Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler, Dont'a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Logan Ryan was good enough to be the No. 7 overall defense in the league.  Despite going against the most prolific offense they've faced all year--the Steelers' seventh-ranked offense should've been their stiffest competition, but we see how both of those games went--the Pats' defense has at least statistically proven to be better designed to stop the pass than the Falcons--New England is 12th, Atlanta is 29th--as well as the run--the Pats are 3rd, the Falcons are 17th.

For everyone who feels the Falcons' offense is unstoppable, let's engage in a Belichick Super Bowl history lesson.  In Super Bowl XXI, John Elway and the Broncos had the No. 6 offense in the league in 1986 and had a 10-9 halftime lead on the Giants, but league MVP Lawrence Taylor and the second-best defense coordinated by Belichick slowed Denver down in the second half while Phil Simms led an offensive explosion, resulting in a 39-20 beatdown.  In Super Bowl XXV, Belichick coordinated an even better defense in 1990 as they held the Bills' top-ranked "K-Gun" offense (26.7 PPG and 329.8 YPG) a TD under their average.  In Super Bowl XXXVI, the Rams a.k.a. "The Greatest Show on Turf" had the best offense in the league who scored 31.4 PPG, but the sixth-ranked Patriots defense held the Rams to only 17 points en route to Belichick's first Super Bowl win as a head coach.  In Super Bowl XXXIX, the Eagles had Donovan McNabb, Byron Westbrook and Terrell Owens in their eighth-ranked offensive arsenal, but the second best defense in the league forced four turnovers from a team who was ninth in turnover ratio (+6).  Factor in all of the wins he has against greats like Peyton Manning (15-9, 3-3 playoffs) and Ben Roethlisberger (8-3, 2-0 playoffs) and Belichick never shakes in his boots because of "elite" offenses, especially when a chip is on the line.

If I were on the "Anybody but Brady and Belichick" Bandwagon like everyone I know is, then my prediction would be easy.  However, neither do I hate one of the greatest quarterback-head coach tandems the NFL has ever seen nor would I have an issue if they win another Super Bowl.  Conversely, I'd love to see someone different win a Super Bowl other than the Patriots and, with their potent offense, it feels like it could be Atlanta's time.  Still, I must let my friends who are either die-hard Falcons fans or hardcore Patriots haters down with my prediction: New England will tie Dallas and Frisco for the second most Super Bowl wins and beat the Falcons, somewhere around 30-27--a score I picked before seeing the over/under of 58.

Who you wit?!?!  PLEASE feel free to share your predictions, reasons for doing so and even a final score in the comments.  Don't forget to return on Tuesday, February 7th, for the final edition of "Views from the Nosebleeds" for the 2016-17 NFL season!!!