Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Scribbler's Predictions: 2015 NFL Divisional Playoff Games



So I nearly went a perfect four for four with my picks no thanks to the home team.  (No, Captain Kirk...I in fact did not like that.)  Outside of history being made as all four road teams won the Wild Card round for the first time ever and all of the "better" quarterbacks winning their games, allow me to sum up each game in one sentence a piece.  Any quarterback that has ever played for the Browns automatically brings bad ju-ju, so although Brian Hoyer did a decent job this year as the starter, the Texans should've expected that outcome in his first playoff start and need a franchise quarterback ASAPington.  Jeremy Hill, Vontaze Burfict, Adam Jones and the Cincinnati Bungles might just get Marvin Lewis aka  "Blarty Schottenheimer" (a term coined by the big homie James F. Hines, Jr.) fired.  Ray Finkle taught us about the life-and-death significance of laces out, so hopefully there is no Lois Einhorn in Blair Walsh's future--or Jeff Locke's for that matter.  Finally, I am about 99.52 percent sure that DeSean Jackson's jersey number actually represents his football IQ score as he continues his personal crusade against planes and pylons, while slugs, snails and pond water could probably score against the Skins' run defense.  Okay, rant over...time for the teams who still count...


AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME: #5 Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) vs. #2 New England Patriots (12-4), Saturday, January 16 @ 4:35 P.M. EST on CBS.  I truly believe that Alex Smith loves when people doubt him.  He has constantly been referred to as a game manager or, as I've personally dubbed him, Sir Dink-N-Dunk-A-Lot.  However, I think about the 2011 Divisional Round Game when he led the 49ers to a thrilling victory against the Saints with his arm and his legs.  Let's not forget the 2013 Wild Card Game where he helped put up 44 points against Andrew Luck and the Colts, albeit in a loss.  Despite  firmly being in the shadow of fellow 2005 draft classmate Aaron Rodgers, the former No. 1 overall pick is totally capable of having a big game.  However, he and the Chiefs do not have the luxury of pounding the Texans for a second straight week; he's gotta play the Patriots at Gillette Stadium--a place in which visiting teams have had about a 24 percent chance of winning in the postseason.  Granted, the Patriots' defense is beatable, but the offense is another story.  Gronk is healthy; Edelman is returning and is expected to be involved in 70 percent of the snaps and Amendola should be healthy enough, too; James White is coming on as another backfield weapon in the passing game in true Kevin Faulk fashion; and although he's a little banged up, there's still that Tom Brady guy.  As much as I believe in the Chiefs' defense and special teams, this is obviously their hardest test of the season.  Not to mention that Smith may be without Jeremy Maclin, which means it's up to Travis Kelce, Albert Wilson and Chris Conley in the passing game while Bill Belichick will probably figure out a way to neutralize Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.  Yup...give me the Patriots at home, 31-20.

NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME: #5 Green Bay Packers (12-5) vs. #2 Arizona Cardinals (13-3), Saturday, January 16 @ 8:15 P.M. EST on NBC.  If the Packers are able to learn two things from their rivals in the Vikings, then it's 1) have a short memory when it comes to blowouts and 2) the Wild, Wild West might not be able to be conquered, but it can be tamed.  After suffering an embarrassing 38-8 beatdown in Week 16, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack would rather build off of their dominant win in Landover on Sunday than dwell on that debacle.  Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals' run defense will not allow Eddie Lacy and James Starks to run wild like the putrid Skins' run defense and, even without Tyrann Mathieu, the Cardinals' pass defense is much more stout than a suspect Skins secondary.  I don't believe that Mr. Discount Double Check will be as ineffective as he was a few weeks ago, but I also don't believe that his fortune in the Desert improves that much.  He doesn't have to face the great Kurt Warner in a playoff shootout this time around, but Carson Palmer is no slouch and loves to throw the deep ball to John Brown, Michael Floyd and whoever else is open.  Green Bay won't be complete pushovers on defense, but David Johnson will probably be able to run the ball with success and Arizona will end up being the better all-around team and get the "W", 30-27.

NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME: #6 Seattle Seahawks (11-6) vs. #1 Carolina Panthers (15-1), Sunday, January 17 @ 1:05 P.M. EST on FOX.  This out-of-division rivalry has the makings of  either a 27-24 game on the high end or a 10-9 slugfest on the low end; either way, it's the toughest game for me to pick.  I love both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton at quarterback, though I lean a bit more toward DangeRuss.   (See the picture on the left from last week's play to Tyler Lockett as the most recent in a long line of compelling exhibits.)  I love both of these defenses even more, especially Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman for the Panthers and Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman for the Seahawks.  Both teams are in similar positions: neither team is going to be able to run wild on the other--especially the 'Hawks as Marshawn Lynch is still not looking good for this Sunday--and each team's No. 1 outside receiver will have issues.   However, Greg Olsen will have an advantage against a Seattle defense who struggles to cover tight ends while Doug Baldwin could be his team's X-factor since Josh Norman doesn't typically play against slot receivers.  In the end, the team with the ball in their hands last will win and I just believe that it's the year of Superman & Friends.  Graham Gano boots the game winner and the Panthers go on to win, 20-17, and host the Cardinals in the battle for NFC supremacy.

AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) vs. #1 Denver Broncos (12-4), Sunday, January 17 @ 4:40 P.M. EST on CBS.  The Steelers should send a belated Christmas card thanking the Bengals for their epic meltdown because I guarantee that will not happen again at Sports Authority Field at Mile High; the Broncos' knucklehead meter is significantly lower, which means that the Steelers will actually have to work for this win.  That work becomes potentially mountainous since DeAngelo Williams is likely out again, Antonio Brown is "not looking good" to pass concussion protocol by Sunday and Big Ben is banged up--although the latter should work in their favor as it usually does.  Maybe Martavis Bryant can step up to the challenge again, but it also means that Markus Wheaton, Heath Miller and Darrius Heyward-Bey have to do so as well and Miller might be the only guy out of that trio that I trust.  However, the Broncos don't have easy sledding either.  Although Gary Kubiak officially named Peyton Manning the starter last week and he arguably gives them the best chance to win at QB, I still have a hard time trusting a guy whose touchdown-to-interception ratio as of late looks a lot like his career playoff record.  Considering how solid these run defenses are going up against questionable backfields, both teams will have to throw the ball to be successful and the Broncos have the advantage.  Both Ben and Peyton will probably throw at least one pick a piece, but Peyton can pick the Steelers' pass defense apart easier than Ben will be able to do AND he's at home.  Although I NEVER like picking Peyton in playoff games and this might be another one to bust up my predictions, give me Mr. Chicken Parm, You Taste So Good in a 27-24 win and a date hosting his favorite rival QB to determine the AFC's top gun.

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