Scribbler's Predictions: 2015 AFC and NFC Championships

So we all know the reason why I went 4-for-4 with my picks this weekend: that God-forsaken team who plays in Landover didn't have a game to blow.  Let's quickly recap what will probably be the best weekend of the playoffs--although I said the same thing last year about the Packers-Seahawks game and the Super Bowl may have been on par, so don't put all your stock in a potential "prisoner of the moment" declaration.  The Chiefs might have been a secure Knile Davis carry and a missed Marcus Peters INT away from upsetting the Patriots, but that's a strong might.  Two things about the Packers: 1) I am 85.1 percent certain that Aaron Rodgers has a particular Tupac Shakur song on repeat before every big game, and 2) the Packers would probably go to the Super Bowl every year if they didn't either have to play the Cardinals in Glendale in overtime games or play the NFC West period--a division that has knocked them out of the playoffs four straight years.  Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks do not concede quietly or easily and it always makes for an entertaining game and a boost in respect for their competitive spirit, but you can't turn the ball over, not take field goals when you already don't have the momentum, mismanage the clock, miss field goals when you do take them and go into halftime down 31-0 to a team like the Panthers.  Finally, the Steelers wish they had as sure handed of a Fitzgerald as the Cardinals as they were moving the ball en route to a potential TD that could've give them an eight-point lead.  Gotta love a weekend when even the game that looked like you could run a few errands during the second half ended up being a nail biter.  Nevertheless, more losers are weeded out as the conference championships are upon us and we move another step closer to the golden anniversary of the Super Bowl.  More important, you get to read the slightly-above-average-informed opinion that means the most to you.  Contain yourself, you faithful subscriber you...

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #2 New England Patriots (13-4) vs. #1 Denver Broncos (13-4), Sunday, January 24 @  3 P.M. EST on CBS.  Although the class act that is Peyton Manning diffused the individual head-to-head matchup with "it'll be the Broncos versus the Patriots" and told CBS' Tracy Wolfson with a smile "I think you knew that answer was coming"--the hype surrounding The Brady-Manning Bowl never gets old even in its 17th installation.  Whether you're a fan of either team, a football fanatic in general like me or an unapologetic hater of one or both of these future first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks--and there are many of you with deep-seated venom spewing from your lips, especially for Brady and Belichick--you have to appreciate these two going at it once again to potentially give us another classic.  The last time these two faced each other in the playoffs was in Denver two years ago in the AFC Championship with a much healthier Peyton Manning and a Broncos offense that racked up over 500 yards of offense, proving way too much for The Brady Bunch in a 26-16 victory.  Fast forward to the 2015 regular season, the Pats took another "L" in Denver at the hands of Brock Osweiler, who gave them their first blemish of the season with a 30-24 OT upset win that ultimately forced the Pats to travel to Sports Authority Field once again by virtue of the tiebreaker.  Let's throw some more fun facts in there to make my pick even more difficult: Brady leads the overall series 11 to 5, but the teams are split 2-2 in their playoff history with Manning winning the last two meetings on his home turf.  Simply put, the Patriots mystique wears off away from Gillette Stadium, especially in the playoffs against a Manning-led squad.

With all of that said, I still don't love the Broncos in this game.  Although it wasn't really Peyton's fault for the eight drops, he threw no TD passes and the offensive play selection was often questionable much to the chagrin of the Denver faithful.  Let's not forget: Brandon McManus was the Big Man on Campus with four field goals before C.J. Anderson scored the Broncos' only TD with 3:00 remaining in the game.  If it weren't for Bradley Roby's forced fumble on Fitzgerald Toussaint, then the aforementioned score may have never happened and it might be the Steelers traveling to Foxboro for the Lamar Hunt Trophy.  Furthermore, if Ben Roethlisberger was able to move the ball through the air on this vaunted Broncos defense without Antonio Brown, then imagine what Brady can do with Edelman and Gronk alone.  Granted, I might take the Steelers' wide receiving corps over anyone else's in the league, but I'm one of the people who believes that Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the NFL.  Although the Pats' defense is beatable and can lead to opportunities in both the passing and running game, I just don't believe that Peyton is all of a sudden back to being a world beater after such an abysmal year.  Brady might have much tougher sledding because he's on the road against one of the best defenses in the league, but he's been playing at a much higher level this year than his favorite frenemy.  Give me the Pats in a 24-21 win to return to the Super Bowl for a second straight year. 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #2 Arizona Cardinals (14-3) vs #1 Carolina Panthers (16-1), Sunday, January 24 @ 6:40 P.M. EST on FOX.  For a good amount of the regular season, I felt like the team to beat in the NFC wasn't the Panthers, but the Cardinals.  If you break down their roster from top to bottom, they are the one team in the NFL with the fewest weaknesses.  Carson Palmer had the third highest QB rating in the league (104.6); David Johnson had the most amount of yards from scrimmage of any running back since Week 13 (658) even with Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington going down with injuries; John Brown and Michael Floyd have been deep threats for most of the year as part of the No. 1 passing offense in the league; and their No. 10 overall defense led by Deone Bucannon, Dwight Freeney, Calais Campbell, Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson has been problematic for most of their opponents.  However, the biggest red flag throughout the season was the offense's propensity for giveaways, although they could usually get away with it because their defense was solid enough to get them the ball back and make up for their faux pas.  So since they were able to overcome mistakes and thwart an amazing Aaron Rodgers comeback in a wild OT win thanks to Larry Fitzgerald sipping from the Fountain of Youth before game time, then they should have an even better shot for victory this week, right?  Wrong, and in fact, their chances just got progressively worse.

They're on the road against a top-five scoring defense, which doesn't bode well for Carson Palmer after throwing a couple of brain-fart INTs and a few more near picks.  The difference between the Packers and the Panthers is that the boys in black and blue will make Palmer pay dearly.  Don't believe me?  Just watch Luke Kuechly.  Thus, Larry Fitzgerald, who always shows up in the playoffs for big game heroics, will have to be the biggest X-factor on offense again.  Even if Josh Norman checks him for most of the game, that could still open up things for John Brown and Michael Floyd as the rest of the Panthers' secondary is not as scary.  Mr. Discount Double Check tested that Arizona defense throwing to Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis, so imagine what a Carolina offense reinvigorated by Johnathan Stewart's return and who just put up 24 easy points on the best defense in the league can do.  Unless they put Patrick Peterson on Greg Olsen the entire game--which probably won't happen at all--then Cam can manage.   Having the deeper team doesn't always mean that you have the better team when it counts, and the Cardinals stand a good chance of falling victim to that statement.  Panthers improve to 2-0 against the NFC West in the postseason on their way to a 30-24 victory, a trip to Santa Clara and a rematch of XXXVIII.  

The more that I think about both of these conference championships, they could very well prove me wrong and provide the best games of the postseason.  Still not holding my breath after that Packers-Cardinals game though.  Man alive that was a game for the ages...heck, I'm watching it again on NFL Network as we speak.