Scribbler's Predictions: Super Bowl XLIX

So after having a bad case of the Bee Gees--and I don't mean Barry, Robin or Maurice--my planned summary of the AFC and NFC championship games couldn't get turned in on time last week.  Besides, there was only one game worth mentioning anyway in the improbable overtime thriller between the Packers and the Seahawks.  I usually don't watch non-Super Bowl games more than once, but being the largest comeback in any conference championship game and one of the greatest comebacks in NFL playoff history, I had to watch it again.  Conversely, I lost two-and-a-half hours of my life watching that debacle of a game now infamously known as "Deflategate" between the Patriots and some high school team from Indianapolis.  As far as I'm concerned, deflated footballs didn't matter since the Pats could've beaten the Colts with cement blocks tied to their ankles.  Anyway, we now have the two teams set to duke it out in Glendale, Arizona for Super Bowl XLIX, and there are many compelling smaller battles to explore within the bigger war.  Let's get at it, ladies and gents--well, it's probably more gents than ladies, but that's neither here nor there...

Bill Belichick vs. Pete Carroll aka "The Battle of the Olivia Pope Clients".  All these two championship-winning coaches need is a Shonda Rhimes cliffhanger to carry us into January and their stories would be even more dramatic.  Belichick has had "Spygate" as well as other late-in-the-game allegations saying that he taped the signals for the Rams and Panthers before those Super Bowls, alleged tampering practices with players, jamming radio signals and now "Deflategate"; while Carroll has been scrutinized for being hired at USC, attached to the vacation of one of USC's championships and, most recently, the "Seadderall" fiasco where several of his defensive players tested positive for the drug--notably Brandon Browner, who was suspended for the rest of the 2013 season and now plays for Belichick.  Both coaches are known for their "Captain Save 'Em All Day" tendencies with outcast players like Randy Moss for Belichick and Percy Harvin for Carroll--both players assisting in Super Bowl runs.  In short, many of their decisions have drawn plenty of scrutiny and media frenzy, but let's throw all of that out with Friday's garbage.  Many of you already know that Belichick was hired as Carroll's replacement in 2000 after Carroll went 33-31 in his tenure.  All Belichick has done in 15 seasons is win 12 AFC East crowns, boast a 175-65 regular season record and a 20-8 playoff record, and reign victorious in the first three out of five overall Super Bowl appearances.  Meanwhile, guiding the USC Trojans football team to (technically) a 97-19 record, five BCS bowl victories and one BCS National Championship title, Carroll hasn't done too bad either.  Oh yeah...and let's not forget the 43-8 beatdown his team put on Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII last year.  While Belichick appears to be more of the structured coach who will give the axe to anyone can't grasp the system or demands more money than he's willing to pay them, Carroll has risen as more of a player's coach who has built a camaraderie that he will not allow anyone to disrupt.  (Letting Percy Harvin walk to the woeful Jets doesn't seem that crazy in hindsight, now does it?)  If it came down to getting his team fired up to play anybody on any given Sunday, then my money is on Carroll all day.  The two things that Carroll has on Belichick since returning to the pros is that 1) he's beaten him once already and 2) he knows what winning a Super Bowl against a high-caliber opponent in the last five years feels like.  Still, six Super Bowl appearances are six Super Bowl appearances.  ADVANTAGE: Belichick, but not by much.

Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson aka "The Battle of the Underdogs".  A 6th round draft pick going against a 3rd round draft pick...how can you not get excited for this matchup?  One was deemed too scrawny and not athletic enough while the other could've been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft if he were 6'5", but both have gone on to make more Super Bowl appearances and win more Lombardi Trophies together than any of the QBs in their respective draft classes combined.  Brady, one of the most intrepid and competitive QBs to have ever played the game, has been a three-time Super Bowl champ, two-time Super Bowl MVP, two-time league MVP and a ten-time Pro Bowler.  No biggie, right?  Comparatively, Wilson was the 2012 Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year, the second Black QB to start and win a Super Bowl and helped the Seahawks grab the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLVIII.  After his epic save in the NFC Championship game against the Packers, he became the first QB in over 33 years to win a playoff game throwing four INTs--George Blanda and Joe Ferguson are the only others to do it.  Now Wilson can make better history by not only becoming the first Black QB to start and win multiple Super Bowls, but also the first QB in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowls in his first three seasons.  No pressure though.  Essentially, this is going to boil down to is 1) who can overcome whose defense, 2) who has the better running game on which to lean, 3) whose defense can bail said QB out of a jam and 4) who is more trustworthy in the waning moments of a game.  Right now, let's just tackle #1 and #4.  As proven in playoff matchups against the Ravens, the Steelers and the Giants, Brady has historically struggled against the league's best defenses in the playoffs and the top-ranked Legion of Boom is as good as it gets.  On the flipside, playing in arguably the toughest defensive division in the NFL for the past three seasons, going against the league's 13th-ranked defense could bode better for Wilson.  As far as game-winning drives though, Brady is No. 4 all time (tied with Brett Favre) with 45 game-winning drives (34 fourth-quarter comebacks for Brady).  Considering that he's had a 12-season head start on Russell Wilson, let's fairly compare them two ways.  In their first three seasons, Brady and Wilson both had ten fourth-quarter comebacks and 15 game-winning drives.  However, since 2012, Wilson has one more fourth-quarter comeback and five-more game-winning drives than Brady--including his first real comeback in 2012 against...wait for it...the Patriots, who had a 23-3 lead in middle of the fourth quarter.  Although the "six Super Bowl appearances are still six Super Bowl appearances" argument could easily apply to Brady, Wilson clearly has God on his side and knows that God is on his side.  Ummm yeah...I never bet against the Almighty.  ADVANTAGE: DangeRuss.

LaGarrette Blount vs. Marshawn Lynch aka "The Battle of the Battering Rams".  This might be the second easiest match-up to predict.  Blount has grown accustomed to having late-season/postseason surges since his time with the Patriots.  One of his most notable performances was in last season's AFC Divisional Round against the Colts with 24 carries, 166 yards and a playoff-franchise record four TDs.  However, Beast Mode is by far the model of consistency between these two running backs.  No one can forget the infamous "Beast Quake" run where he broke nine tackles for a momentum-cementing 67-yard TD against the New Orleans Saints.  In four full seasons with the Seahawks, he has run for at least 1,200 yards and scored at least 11 TDs per season.  Between him and Russell Wilson, he is a huge reason why the Seahawks have the No. 1 rushing attack in the league with a staggering 172.6 yards per game.  Despite facing the league's 9th-ranked rushing attack who have only given up 100-plus-rushing-yard games to Knowshon Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte (mainly in garbage time), Chris Ivory and (most recently in the AFC Divisional Round) Justin Forsett, that still bodes well for him.  Although Blount's 148-yard, three-TD performance in the AFC Championship was a much needed ray of light, it was against the Colts' 18th-ranked run defense while he only gained a grand total of one rushing yard against the Ravens' 4th-ranked run defense a week earlier.  Although teams have had success running the ball against Seattle and this could be New England's best shot at winning, their run defense is still ranked 3rd and, on a team where Jonas Gray was the season's leading rusher with 412 yards and 5 TDs--most of those stats coming in one game against the Colts--Blount is clearly in a running-back-by-committee system.  Too bad Blount and the Pats' running backs can't go against the Colts' run defense every game; they might actually break Eric Dickerson's single-season record.  ADVANTAGE: Beast Mode.

Patriots' receivers vs. Seahawks' receivers aka "The Battle of the Scrappy Doos".  This might be the easiest match-up to predict, but most of these guys have one thing in common: except for Gronk, none of these guys get enough respect.  Although Danny Amendola was supposed to be the heir apparent to Wes Welker, Julian Edelman has more than adequately replaced Welker in the offense as the Pats' leader in receptions (92) and runner-up in yards (972)--not to mention that he can throw an occasional TD pass.  When hopes were dashed with the failures of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell has filled in tremendously since coming over from Carolina with 953 receiving yards and 7 TDs.  Rob Gronkowski...well, uhhhh...he's the friggin' Gronk for crying out loud and not to mention a healthy Gronk--coming off of an 82-reception, 1,153-receiving-yard, 12-TD regular season.  If the Patriots are going to win this game through the air, then Gronk can't just be an aircraft; he has to be the aircraft carrier.  Although the 'Hawks boast the league's top passing defense, they will not have an easy task whatsoever, and after saying "I actually don't think he's that good", third-year nickel-back Jeremy Lane may have 1) made the chip on Gronk's huge shoulders even bigger and 2) made the bullseye on his personal target easier to strike.  On the opposing sideline, the Seahawks' passing attack is not as impressive, but they can be quite the crafty bunch.  After the departures of Golden Tate and Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are their best remaining wide receivers--neither of whom had a 1,000-yard season and combined for four receiving TDs, which Marshawn Lynch had all by himself as the team's TD receptions leader--and Luke Willson is no Gronk despite becoming a dependable target for DangeRuss.  Hence, I doubt that a secondary led by Revis Island and Brandon Browner is shaking in their boots.  However, as has been Seattle's mantra in the Pete Carroll, this receiving corps prides itself on being underrated and overlooked.  After being the target on all four Wilson INTs in the NFC championship, Kearse had the TD catch of his career to help get Seattle to their second consecutive Super Bowl--not to mention that Baldwin caught the 35-yard strike to set up that play.  So considering that they have a QB that can make plays and force the defense to be disciplined enough to hold their positions, don't be surprised if one of these guys makes an unexpected big play at the right time of a game.  Still, it's all about matchups and they have the harder hill to climb.  ADVANTAGE: The Brady Bunch.

Patriots' defense vs. The Legion of Boom aka "The Battle of the Ball Hawks".  As lauded as the Legion of Boom is as a defensive unit, let's not sleep on the Patriots for one second.  Although ranked near the middle of the pack as a total defense at No. 13, they were a top-ten defense in points allowed (8th) and stopping the run (9th).  More important, the Patriots were tied for 13th in takeaways (25) compared to the Seahawks at 21st (23), and the team's turnover margin (+12) was second only to Green Bay (+14) while Seattle (+9) wasn't too far behind at No. 4.  A unit that features Vince Wilfork, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Darrelle Revis and former Legion of Boomer Brandon Browner is nothing to scoff at whatsoever and cause problems at their respective positions.  However, they don't have that same "every-time-they-touch-the-ball-hit-their-a**-in-the-mouth" mentality as the Legion of Boom.  Coming out of the same draft class as teammate Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner is becoming one of the league's best middle linebackers.  Although losing Red Bryant and Chris Clemons on the defensive line to free agency after winning Super Bowl XLVIII, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are still problematic enough.  With freakish athleticism and a hammer to be reckoned with, Kam Chancellor is cut from the same cloth as the late, great Sean Taylor.  Although most of the praise tends to go to Richard Sherman, even Sherman will admit that Earl Thomas is the team's best defensive player.  More than anything, this is a unit that has played together for a while now and they have a synergy on defense that, in recent memory, I have only seen with the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Buccaneers and maybe the 2008 Steelers; these dudes seriously love, trust and believe in each other.  Although Belichick is heralded as a defensive mind, I'm not sure if any member of the Pats' defensive unit ever feels secure in their position--especially with the rumor that the team might not re-up with Revis at season's end.  Conversely, the brotherly love with the Legion of Boom is clearly an extension of their head coach.  Considering that Wilfork is the only remaining defensive member from the Patriots' last Super Bowl-winning team, give me the unit with the most amount of unity, concentrated emotion and recent championship pedigree.  ADVANTAGE: The Legion of Boom, but it's closer than you think.

Darrelle Revis vs. Richard Sherman aka "The Battle of the Best Corners".  Although I've already covered defense, you know this had to have its own section.  Now if you ask most people, Revis is the league's best corner because 1) he always plays the opposing team's best wide receiver, 2) he always plays them well and 3) even after a torn ACL, he is still the league's premier shutdown corner.  He might not be as fast as Sherman, but he is one of the most crafty defenders that knows how to make life miserable for his opponent.  Furthermore, although he primarily played on Rex Ryan-coached defenses full of stout players, Revis was usually the best player on his side of the ball.  However, if you ask Richard Sherman, then you must be deaf, dumb and blind if you don't think that he's the best corner in the league--even though he stays on his assigned side of the field.  In his defense, Sherman has played in 47 less regular season games and has defended 58 fewer passes than Revis, but has still managed to snag 26 INTs in his shorter career to Revis' 24 INTs.  Revis has one more forced fumble, but that's still impressive for Sherman considering that he plays on a team full of ball hawks.  So let's get to this year's playoffs: Revis has one INT in two games while Sherman has two in two games.  Putting those picks into context, Revis was primarily defending Steve Smith--to whom he gave up three catches, 44 yards and an early TD before shutting him down for the rest of the game--and T.Y. Hilton--who caught only one pass for 36 yards and had one of his passes taken by Revis that was ultimately the death knell in a lost cause.  Sherman primarily defended two rookies: Philly Brown--who was held to two catches for 24 yards--and Davante Adams--one catch for seven yards and his lunch money taken on a Sherman INT that could've been a TD.  Here's another monkey wrench: will Sherman be healthy enough to defend whoever comes to his side?  Bill Belichick is no Mike McCarthy, who only targeted Sherman once in nine attempts after Sherman suffered an elbow injury; if he smells blood in the water, then he's going for the kill.  It might be to his detriment, but he won't be afraid to take his shots.  I'm sure that Sherman will work tirelessly to be as healthy as possible, especially since he was sidelined in last year's big game with an ankle injury.  Revis, on the other hand, is healthy and boosted to play in his first Super Bowl.  ADVANTAGE: Revis Island by a frog hair.

Breaking down these two teams--whose identical 12-4 regular season records were the best of their conferences--they are very evenly matched.  I have heard the phrase "pick 'em game" used ad nauseam  to describe how difficult it is to predict a winner.  That might explain why Vegas currently has Seattle as only a one-point favorite and that line could change by Sunday to favor the Patriots, although one could argue that the line already does because it's so low.  In their annual simulated prediction via Madden NFL 15, EA Sports has the Patriots beating the Seahawks, 28-24.  At the end of the business day, however, this blog post is about the prediction of one man and one man alone: Dirk Scribbler.  In various discussions with sports enthusiasts who emphasize that this is a passing league, I have shouted from the mountaintop that football teams win championships with two key ingredients: 1) a stout running game and 2) a ferocious defense.  While I do agree that you need a very good or elite quarterback because he is the most important player on the field, those aforementioned factors are pivotal for long-term success.  Dan Marino made only one Super Bowl and couldn't win because he didn't have either in his favor for most of his illustrious career.  Both Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have only won one Super Bowl a piece without consistency in their running games or defensive units.  When Ben Roethlisberger won his first Super Bowl (XL), he was the quarterback of a team with the 5th best running game and the 4th best defense in the league, but the 24th best passing game--although his talents were absolutely necessary in winning Super Bowl XLIII.  Fittingly, the last Super Bowl win in the Belichick-Brady era was when Corey Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards and 12 TDs and the team had a top-ten defense led by Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour and Willie McGinest.  Although they feature the league's sixth-worst passing attack, the Seahawks are the best in the league in the running game and on defense.  More important, I have always been a sucker for love and it's as apparent as Captain Obvious that every member of this team will hold each other's feet to the fire, but will run through several brick walls for each other.  Two words: Go 'Hawks.  Something along the lines of 23-20.